Excess winter mortality

The phenomenon of excess winter deaths is not unique to the United Kingdom but the incidence is markedly higher than for countries with similar climates and living standards. Excess winter mortality is calculated by comparing the total number of deaths during the winter period (December – March) with the average number of deaths in the preceding and following four-month periods.

 Excess winter mortality
Date England Scotland Wales Total
1993 - 1994
25,030
2,590
1,010
28,630
1994 - 1995
25,760
2,310
1,650
29,720
1995 - 1996
37,810
3,650
2,440
43,900
1996 - 1997
44,850
3,640
2,880
51,370
1997 - 1998
21,730
2,610
1,290
25,630
1998 - 1999
44,010
4,750
2,900
51,660
1999 - 2000
45,650
5,190
2,970
53,810
2000 - 2001
23,400
2,220
1,700
27,320
2001 - 2002
25,800
1,840
1,500
29,140
2002 - 2003
22,700
2,510
1,400
26,610

 

Winter mortality in other European countries reveals some surprising trends. The countries with the highest winter death rate are Portugal and Spain. The explanation for this unexpected occurrence probably lies in the quality of a housing stock that is not built to protect from cold weather and in the comparative poverty in some regions of these countries. A better comparison can be made between Great Britain and other affluent countries of northern Europe. Whilst it is generally agreed that factors affecting excess winter mortality are varied and complex there is a strong relationship between thermal standards in housing and excess winter deaths.

Excess winter mortality as % increase over non-winter deaths [1]
Austria 14%
Belgium 13%
Denmark 12%
Finland 10%
France 13%
Germany 11%
Ireland 21%
Netherlands 11%
England 19%
Scotland 16%
Wales 17%
Mean 16%

 

[1] Healy, JD, Excess winter mortality in Europe: a cross country analysis identifying key risk factors, Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health, 2003; Volume 57, Number 10